A Missed Opportunity : Open Call to Stewart and Colbert

You have the power and you had once in a life time opportunity to engage our youth and adults in a healthy social and political discourse.

Why did you miss it?

Why did you not tell all of us to go out and be heard?

Only way to change the world is to be a part of the change.

Why did you not challenge us to go out and vote?

So much of your audience kept waiting and hoping and waiting to hear this.

Imagine the impact if, instead of 20-30% population which normally vote in a mid term election, because of you 80% voted.

David Zurawik at the Baltimore Sun headlines "Stewart-Colbert: A rally signifying nothing".

That may be too simplistic but you had the captive audience, bully pulpit and your enormous creative talent.You failed to make an impact.

You have shown repeatedly on your show how much influence you can have.

You still have 48 hours to go. Please push the next two nights to fight and engage with a force and ingenuity which only you two can.

JON RALSTON: Atmospherics are terrible for Reid, but he will hold on

The expert goes out on the limb and predicts:

The result: Reid, 47 percent; Angle, 45 percent; rest, 4 percent; none of the above, 4 percent.

Reast of the predictions for today:

Daily Beast

DEM49

GOP51

DEM211

GOP224

Cook

Net Loss 50-60View Blog

Obama Comes to Support Periello

Last night President Obama went to Charlottesville to affirm his strong support to Periello compaign. Many thousands of enthusiastic supporters including University of Virginia students and staff showed up in thirties temperature and cheered for the team.

The senator's team hopes that this last minute effort will help push his campaign over the edge on next tuesday's voting.

In recent polling Periello is trailing his republican competitor but he has shown that he can fight till end and be a winner as happened the last time over.

Optimism Supreme Or Vision Extra Ordinaire?

As late as today, 30th of October and 3 days from election day, Karen Finney on MSNBC with Alex Witt:

"I don't think democrates are going to lose the house. And if they will, it will be close"

That is a very bold prediction and resembles the one by MJ, USPolling analyst made a few days back on these posts. USPolling's PM is the only third person we are able to track who shares the same belief.

Almost every other poll out there predicts a much bigger loss of 55 or more seats for house for democrates.

The Daily Beast (taking republicans from current 178 to 224 seats with a net gain of 46), Cook ( net gain 50-60 or more), Rothenberg ( at least 55 to 65), Real Clear politics ( 46 seats with 40 more in play) and lastly, Lary Sabato at University of Virgina Center For Politics ( 55 plus).

Daily Beast Predicts Lower Numbers for Democrates

DEM49

GOP51

DEM211

GOP224

Democrates Settling Down to Lower Levels

Sabato's Crystal B

Latest prediction from Larry Sabato at Center For Politics at the University of Virginia

Senate 2010

+8 GOP

---

House 2010

+47 GOP

---

Governor 2010

+8 GOP

2 days before, our analyst MJ saw democrates retain control of house and senate this year in contrast to multiple polls and analysis out there.

Today Daily Beast Oracle almost confirms that assessment.

Here is the shot from it now

DEM51

GOP49

DEM217

GOP218

We know that conventional wisdom and pundits dictate otherwise but we are here to to report and let the facts play out.

With 14 days to go, things may move around somewhat and we will keep you informed if and as they do.

US Polling Updates Prediction For October 16th

USPolling Analyst MJ has updated her prediction of this years midterms. She thinks Demcrates will retain the senate AND the house, albeit very narrowly. This is mostly based on her gut feeling and wishful thinking as she has been right many times in the past on these and other worldly situations.

Surprisingly, some of the lesser known experts in the field tend to disagree with her.

Karl Rove (9/30) predicted a low of 39 ( needed to win house) to a range of 45-48 seats. In senate, he predicts a 48 with a win of 8-9 seats on a recent Hannity program.

Dick Morris (9/29) has much explosive predictioon of house win of 60-80 seats and senate turned to majority for republicans plus 2-3 additional seats.

Larry Sabato ( 10/1) predicts modest majority for republicans in the house with 37 seats win but modest majority for democrates remaining in senate.

On 10/5 Michael Barone predicts repeat of 1894: A win of more than hundred seats for republicans.

As they say- we shall see!

The Rothenberg Deal

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/

One Cook - Some Unspoiled Broth

http://www.cookpolitical.com/

Good Reporting Though Somewhat Selective

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

Extra-Ordinary Reporting

http://www.thedailybeast.com/election-oracle/

Nate Silver Speaks (And We Listen)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/